홈   Research   >   Climate Projection

Climate Projection

Climate Change Projection and Mechanism (기후변화 전망 및 메커니즘)

Scientists predict future global and regional climates by simulating climate models under different forcing scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols emissions. Future projections of climate change are basically highly uncertain due to a few factors including scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal variability. Probabilistic future projections of climate change provide a way to take account of these uncertainties in a systematic manner. Also, evaluating relative contributions of different uncertainty sources is critical to improving our scenarios and models and thereby increasing the reliability of climate change projections. In this respect, understanding physical mechanism for future changes is critical. For instance, comparing multiple climate models in terms of thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to regional-scale precipitation changes will help to identify what is major uncertainty factor for a target region.

[“Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in summer precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea: A multi-RCM study”, Lee et al. (2017, Climate Dynamics)]
[“Probabilistic climate change predictions applying Bayesian model averaging”, Min et al. (2007, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London)]